Proprietary research · Infrastructure and utilities · Est. 2025

Five-year guidance audits across the full FTSE 350 infrastructure and utilities universe.

Yamaranguila Systems is a proprietary research house covering every utilities, energy, and infrastructure name in the FTSE 350. We track how management language shifts across the regulatory cycle, score the credibility of forward guidance, and identify the valuation inflection points that standard sell-side coverage does not reach.

FTSE
350 utilities, energy, and infrastructure universe covered in full
5yr
filing history audited per company. Annual reports, sustainability reports, regulatory submissions
100%
page-cited findings. Every conclusion referenced to a specific paragraph in the source filing
35+
Companies audited across the FTSE 350 infrastructure and utilities universe
175+
Annual reports and regulatory filings processed across the full coverage universe
8/10
Guidance pivot score on United Utilities. Highest score recorded in the current coverage universe
3
Sectors covered: water and wastewater, energy networks, transport and concessions

Access the full FTSE 350 coverage universe

Guidance pivot scores, execution certainty scores, and five-year strategic pivot maps for every name in the coverage universe. Enter your email to request access.

01 · Coverage

Every FTSE 350 infrastructure and utilities name. Five years of filings each.

Water and wastewater
United Utilities, Severn Trent, South West Water, Pennon Group and the full listed water sector. AMP cycles, Ofwat price determinations, and spill reduction commitments create multi-year valuation inflection points that consensus models do not capture.
Energy and networks
National Grid, SSE, Drax, Centrica, and the full listed energy and network universe. RIIO price controls, net-zero capital commitments, and Ofgem WACC determinations produce persistent divergence between reported earnings and underlying economic value.
Transport and concessions
National Express, FirstGroup, Go-Ahead, and listed transport infrastructure. Long-dated concession structures, availability payment mechanisms, and regulatory penalty frameworks embed covenant risks that are systematically mispriced.
Company Ticker Sector Pivot score Key finding
United Utilities UU. LN Water 8 / 10 Nature-based solutions shift from ESG footnote to core compliance tool. AMP8 capital step-change not yet in consensus.
Severn Trent SVT. LN Water Available on request Full audit available. Request access below.
National Grid NG. LN Energy networks Available on request Full audit available. Request access below.
SSE SSE. LN Energy networks Available on request Full audit available. Request access below.
Pennon Group PNN. LN Water Available on request Full audit available. Request access below.
Drax Group DRX. LN Energy generation Available on request Full audit available. Request access below.
30+ additional names across the full FTSE 350 infrastructure and utilities universe. Request access for the complete dataset.
Why systematic coverage matters
A single company audit is useful. A systematic audit of every name in a sector is a different product. When you can compare guidance credibility scores across the full listed water universe, or rank energy networks by the magnitude of their strategic language shift over the past five years, the relative valuation implications become considerably sharper. That is what the Yamaranguila Systems coverage database provides.
02 · The tools

Two proprietary systems. One integrated research output.

Due diligence accelerator Operational
Hawthorn
Longitudinal guidance audit and strategic pivot detection
Hawthorn solves the memory problem in equity research. A sell-side analyst covering a company today has typically read the last one or two annual reports in detail. Hawthorn has read every filing back to 2020 for every name in the coverage universe and tracks precisely how management language has shifted across the regulatory cycle, including changes that do not show up as obvious differences but represent a material strategic repositioning.
What it produces
Strategic pivot map
Identifies when management's stated priorities shift in emphasis, confidence, or framing across the five-year filing history. Each finding cited to a specific page and paragraph.
Guidance pivot score
A scored output from 0 to 10 quantifying how significantly management's framing of risk and strategy has shifted relative to prior commitments. Comparable across every name in the coverage universe.
Execution certainty score
Cross-references forward commitments from earlier filings against outcomes reported in later ones. Quantifies whether management has historically delivered on the specific targets it sets publicly.
FTSE 350 universe 5-year filing audit Guidance pivot score Page-cited output
Scenario valuation framework In development
Jericho
Dynamic capital structure stress testing and covenant analysis
Jericho addresses the sensitivity problem in infrastructure modelling. A standard DCF uses a base case and a single downside. For a regulated asset with a multi-billion pound investment programme, that is insufficient. Jericho runs thousands of scenarios across the key value drivers simultaneously: interest rates, CAPEX leakage, regulatory penalties, and RAV growth trajectory.
What it produces
Covenant heatmap
Models gearing ratios and interest cover across a full scenario distribution. Visual map of covenant headroom under a range of rate and cash flow outcomes.
Rate path sensitivity
Integrates current SONIA curves and models the impact of a higher-for-longer rate environment on debt service capacity across a five-year infrastructure investment cycle.
RAV waterfall analysis
Models Regulatory Asset Value growth against projected CAPEX to derive the equity buffer available to sustain dividends and maintain credit ratings under a credible bear case.
10,000+ scenarios Covenant heatmap RAV waterfall Rate path sensitivity
Hawthorn answers
Is the narrative credible?
What is management committing to, how has that commitment shifted over time, and is there a track record of delivery? Hawthorn provides the qualitative signal with a full cited audit trail, comparable across every name in the coverage universe.
Jericho answers
Can the balance sheet support it?
If Hawthorn identifies a strategic pivot, Jericho tests whether the capital structure can absorb the cost of executing it under a range of macro scenarios. The quantitative proof behind the thesis.
03 · Workflow

From raw filings to a deal pack in two pages

01
Ingestion
Five years of annual reports, sustainability reports, and regulatory submissions per company are processed by Hawthorn. Full text extraction preserves the structure of financial appendices including tables and footnotes. Legacy documents processed with full character recognition for complete historical coverage.
Hawthorn
02
Guidance audit
Hawthorn audits the filing history as a skeptical analyst would: tracking how management's language on key topics has evolved, flagging where commitments have been quietly downgraded or reframed, and scoring the overall credibility of the current guidance. Every finding cited to a specific page and paragraph.
Hawthorn
03
Capital structure stress test
KPIs and risk factors identified by Hawthorn are fed into Jericho. Scenario queries are translated directly into sensitivity tables. Jericho models the probability of covenant breach across thousands of scenario combinations and derives the equity buffer under a bear case.
Jericho
04
Deal pack
A two-page investment memo. Page one states the buy or sell recommendation and the three key drivers, drawing on the Hawthorn audit findings. Page two contains the Jericho sensitivity tables and scenario analysis, with full page citations throughout. Formatted for an investment committee or deal team review.
Hawthorn + Jericho
04 · Research output

Published research: United Utilities

Published report · Hawthorn guidance audit · five-year filing review · 2020 to 2025
Water and wastewater · UK regulated utility · Ofwat AMP8 investment cycle
UU. LN
Baa1 / BBB+ · regulated water
Guidance pivot score
8 / 10
Highest score in the current coverage universe
Filings audited
5
Annual reports 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2025
Report status
Published
Full report on Substack
Investment thesis
Buy. Hawthorn identifies a material strategic pivot in United Utilities filings between 2020 and 2025. Nature-based solutions shift from a peripheral ESG disclosure to a core regulatory compliance tool, signalling a structural change in the capital allocation profile ahead of AMP8 that is not yet reflected in sell-side consensus. The 39% spill reduction commitment represents a step-change in operating intensity. The £5.7bn investment programme, modelled against the current Baa1/BBB+ credit rating, supports a growing Regulatory Asset Value base that underpins the dividend even under a stressed rate environment.
Hawthorn · key findings
Pivot detected
FY2020 to FY2025 · 5-year audit
Nature-based solutions
ESG footnote to compliance core · p.93
Spill reduction target
39% reduction committed · p.2
Pivot score
8 / 10 · material repositioning
Management tone
Shift from growth to risk management framing in 2023 and 2025 filings
Jericho · capital structure context
AMP8 programme
£5.7bn committed · p.2
Credit rating
Baa1 / BBB+ · p.87
RAV growth (AMP8)
8.3% per annum projected
Bear case ICR
1.8x at SONIA 5%
Covenant floor
1.5x ICR · 20% headroom in bear case
Key figures
Pivot score8 / 10
AMP8 spend£5.7bn
RAV CAGR8.3%
ICR (bear)1.8x
Spill target-39%

The United Utilities forensic audit is published in full on the Hawthorn & Jericho Substack. Guidance pivot scores and audit findings for all 35+ names in the coverage universe are available to registered users. Request access below.

Read the full report
Data handling

All analysis is based on publicly available regulatory filings. Processing runs in a private, isolated environment. No data is transmitted to third-party infrastructure. Findings are not included in output unless they can be cited to a specific source. If a claim cannot be sourced, it does not appear.

Published research · Hawthorn & Jericho on Substack
A Forensic Audit of United Utilities
Five-year guidance audit · AMP8 capital structure analysis · Buy thesis with page citations
Read the report
06 · Founder

Built by someone who has worked the problem from the inside

Stifel, Nicolaus and Co.
Equity Sales Insight · London · July 2025
Produced SOTP valuation briefs and pre-earnings alpha reports for FTSE 100/250 analysts. Observed directly the gap between what consensus models capture and what is disclosed in the filings. That gap is what Jericho was built to close.
Tyndall Investment Management
Equity Research · London · Spring 2025
Conducted equity research on AIM-listed companies. Worked with Bloomberg Terminal for equity screening and portfolio analysis. Saw firsthand the time cost of manually reviewing qualitative filing disclosures for investment-relevant language shifts. That cost is what Hawthorn was built to eliminate.
Durham University Finance Society
Market Report Director · 2025 to present
Architected the digital strategy that scaled output reach to 60,000+ monthly views. Manages 50+ analysts across 9 sector teams. Standardised DCF and LBO modelling templates across the society.
Project Trust, Yamaranguila, Honduras
Teacher · August 2023 to August 2024
Managed a project budget of £7,000+ independently while delivering 25+ hours of weekly instruction across 5 classes. Yamaranguila Systems takes its name from this placement. Rigorous analysis matters most where the margin for error is smallest.
Access

Request access to the full coverage database

Registered users receive:

  • Guidance pivot scores and five-year strategic pivot maps for all 35+ FTSE 350 infrastructure and utilities names
  • Execution certainty scores comparing management commitments against disclosed outcomes across the full filing history
  • The United Utilities forensic audit, published in full on the Hawthorn & Jericho Substack, with the complete guidance audit trail and capital structure analysis
  • Deal packs for additional names as they are completed
  • Sector-level comparative analysis ranking names by guidance credibility and strategic repositioning magnitude
Request received. We will be in touch with access details shortly.

Access is provided to equity research professionals, investment analysts, and finance students. All research is based on publicly available filings.

Data and compliance

All research is conducted on publicly available regulatory filings sourced from company investor relations pages, the FCA National Storage Mechanism, and Ofwat published determinations. No proprietary, non-public, or client data is used or retained at any stage of the research process.